Paris Agreement Scenarios

In order to classify the rigour of different warming limits, the concept of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was introduced into climate change research. Like SSPs, they are called “pathways” in the literature, but are actually projections of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations and their combined transmission of radiation. They initially consisted of four projections ranging from RCP 2.6 to RCP 8.5 and, following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, were expanded by RCP 1.9 to represent mitigation trajectories consistent with the 1.5°C warming limit. The values refer to the propulsion of radiation in watt/m2 by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial periods, for example.B. 2.6 watts/m2 for RCP 2.6. For comparison, a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 of the pre-industrial era, that is to say about 280 ppm (ppm) of air molecules at 560 ppm, with a radiative propulsion of 3.7 watts/m2. In 2016, CO2 concentrations reached 400 ppm and radiation from all anthropogenic influences on the climate system was estimated in 2011 at about 2.3.3±1 watts/m2. Two | Under the term NDC, we also include “planned” national contributions from governments that have not yet ratified the Paris Agreement. At present, the United States has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, which is why we are using the top of its current political path; President-elect Biden, however, has in other part of his intention to join the agreement. For countries that surpass their NDCs, we take as a limit the top of their current political projections. Clim. Change 123, 369-382 (2014).

Climate change scenarios are opportunities to reduce global warming through deliberate measures such as widespread conversion to energy sources other than fossil fuels. These are measures that minimize emissions in order to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that limits the adverse effects of climate change. These scenarios make it possible to study the impact of different carbon prices on an economy within the framework of different global aspirations. [1] In the absence of policy, global warming is expected to be 4.1°C to 4.8°C higher than pre-industrial by the end of the century. The emissions that cause this warming are often referred to as baseline scenarios (“baselines” in the figure below) and come from the IPCC working group AR5 III. . . .