Economists Say Wages Aren’t Causing Inflation, This Should Change Debt Ceiling Debate (but won’t)

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NPR interviewed a Federal Reserve economist and an economics professor from the University of Massachusetts who explain research that indicates profits are likely driving the majority of inflation, rather than workers demanding higher wages: https://www.npr.org/2023/05/11/1175487806/corporate-profit-price-spiral-wage-debate

Greedflation article from April: https://fortune.com/2023/04/05/end-of-capitalism-inflation-greedflation-societe-generale-corporate-profits/

  • Latest debt ceiling status: Meetings on Friday between leaders postponed in favor of staff members’ meeting
  • There is no wage-price spiral but rather a Profit-Price Spiral or Price-Price Spiral
  • Economist Isabella Weber of the University of Massachusetts says inflation = costs + profits, the profit part is what is moving inflation up, argues for price controls or windfall profit tax
  • I think windfall profits tax could help the government fiscal issues presented now more than spending cuts could
  • Work requirements and cuts to government spending, causing fear of layoffs, is to put downward pressure on wages and reduce demand overall (but that’s not necessary because that’s not the majority of the cause of inflation)
  • Central banks are shifting their policies too, UK Central Bank was asking workers to stop asking for raises, now is asking companies to stop raising prices
  • Fed economist Andrew Glover – Profits have always contributed to inflation after a recession, which we had in 2020
  • Profit growth accounts for more than half of 2021 inflation
  • Growth in markup not tied to demand
  • Companies anticipated inflation – expectation created reality
  • GOP policies are more about prejudice than economics – see the immigration bill, which restricts immigration, while immigration could fix a labor shortage.
  • McCarthy is not as economically ideological but could use economic tools as part of the party’s primary priority of oppressing outgroups
  • This is no longer about fiscal responsibility when it comes to the Republicans. Anti-woke banking laws related to not doing business with banks who restrict fossil fuel and firearms business could cost $300-500 million in interest to Texas taxpayers: https://apple.news/AmT33tQ1ZSVyEjZQKhu4KBw
  • So economic reality may matter less now than then, which may bode poorly for Dems seeking to avoid Medicaid work requirements, which is the item that is least likely for them to agree to and would have the direst consequences on vulnerable citizens

 

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